than
half a century ago, leaders who were still engaged in war took
the time to prepare for peace. In a breathtaking leap into a new
era, the world created not just new international institutions
the IMF, The World Bank, the GATT as well as the UN - and
a whole set of new rules for a new international economy but gave
expression to a new public purpose based on high ideals.
One of the signal events was the Bretton
Woods Conference. Bretton Woods defined a new public purpose characterised
by high ideals. The conference was about more than exchange rates,
the mechanics of financial arrangements or even new institutions.
As the American Secretary of the Treasury said at the very start
of the opening session: Prosperity has no fixed limits.
It is not a finite substance to be diminished by division. On
the contrary, the more of it that other nations enjoy the more
each nation will have for itself. In short, prosperity to
be sustained had to be shared. Practicality and morality went
hand in hand.
So the post-war arrangements were founded
on the belief that public action on a new and wider stage could
advance a new and worldwide public purpose of high ideals rooted
in social justice; to achieve prosperity for all by each co-operating
with every other; new international rules of the game that involved
a commitment to high levels of growth and employment. In short,
the job of every economy was to create jobs for all.
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The issue
is not one of either markets or government but how markets
and government can best work together... It is to ensure
global markets can work in the public interest. Transparency
in policy-making is one way to develop the informed and
educated markets we need.
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The founders of Bretton Woods resolved
that the failed policies of laissez-faire which resulted in vast
inequities and recurring depression from the 1870s to the 1930s
would not be repeated. Untrammelled, unregulated market forces
had brought great instability and even greater injustice. In the
post-war era, governments had to work collectively if they were
to achieve either justice or stability.
The initiatives and institutions of that
era were shaped to the conditions of the time a world economy
of protected national markets, limited capital flows, and fixed
exchange rates. For nearly 30 years, the system worked for hundreds
of millions who enjoyed unparalleled prosperity. Bretton Woods
took us a long way. Yet even in the 70s with hundreds of millions
still in poverty, we had still a long way to go.
But over the next generation, that
new world, too, became old, as the existing order of nation states
and collective international action was increasingly bypassed
by the growth and eventually the sheer force of international
financial flows, successively ending dollar convertibility into
gold, the fixed exchange rate system, and post-war Keynesian certainties,
bringing in its wake an outbreak of inflation and then stagflation
that spread across the Western world.
The 1980s saw a new consensus emerge,
essentially an attempt to return to laissez-faire. It focussed
not on what governments should do, but on what governments should
not do, emphasising private pursuits almost to the exclusion of
public purpose. Enlightened self-interest gave way to sheer self-interest.
Instead of rising to the challenge of applying the high ideals
of the post-war world to a new world, instead of aiming for high
levels of employment and prosperity for all, sights were lowered,
the vision was narrowed. The new right consensus focussed almost
entirely on inflation and minimal government.
The new right consensus did understand the importance of liberalizing
economies from excessive regulation and bad government. But they
confused means with ends and said, in effect, that inflation alone,
not jobs and growth also, were exclusive concerns. And they said
that all government was bad: that government cant make a
difference, at least not a positive one, in jobs and growth, and
that global markets have to be left entirely to market dogmas
which have no place for the public pursuit of high ideals. But
this consensus failed even in its own stated purpose. The Reagan
administration brought the largest fiscal deficit in American
history. The Thatcher government reduced Britain to inflationary
boom-and-bust.
By 1997, an increasingly turbulent
and inadequately supervised international financial system threatened
to create boom and bust on a global scale. Now both of the Bretton
Woods objectives not only prosperity for all but stability
for all were at risk. The post-war hope for an indivisible
prosperity was replaced by the sudden fear of indivisible instability.
The new right consensus could not endure.
In 1998, we experienced events that
were unthinkable just two or three years ago: free enterprise
Hong Kong taking publicly owned stakes in all its private companies;
Japan nationalising its banks; Russia going into default; in America,
the mounting of one of the biggest ever emergency refinancing
- not for a bank but for a hedge fund; most damaging of all, the
biggest growth economies of the last decade in East Asia suffering
larger contractions in output even than experienced in the Great
Depression of the 1930s.
The ultimate price of all this is
profound human suffering. In Korea, unemployment has trebled in
one year; in Indonesia, ten years of growth have been wiped out;
and in the Asian crisis countries as a whole, the number of people
in poverty is set to double by 2000.
So now the responsibility falls
on this generation to be present at a new creation of new
rules that break with the past and both effectively and fairly
meet the demands of the new global economy.
Our aim must be an international
financial system for the 21st Century that recognises the new
realities: open not sheltered economies; international not national
capital markets; global not local competition. It must be one
that captures the full benefits of global markets and capital
flows, minimises the risk of disruption, maximises opportunity
for all and lifts up the most vulnerable, in short, the restoration
in the international economy of public purpose and high ideals.
The consensus of the 1980s with
its narrow focus on inflation, privatisation and deregulation
must involve into a new 1990s consensus with a new and broader
emphasis on competition, supervision and the right conditions
for growth and employment.
I believe that the third way, initiated
and developed by Tony Blair, has profound relevance for the challenge
we now confront on the global stage. The issue is not one of either
markets or government but how markets and government can best
work together. The way forward for the new global economy is not
to retreat from globalisation into either protectionism
or old national controls or to retreat into a failed laissez
faire. It is to ensure global markets can work in the public interest.
Transparency in policy-making is one way to develop the informed
and educated markets we need.
In a world where the new frontier is no frontiers, we must rediscover
the public purpose and high ideals of 1945 with four major reforms
that add up to a transformation of the international financial
system - a new economic constitution for the new global economy.
New Rules of the Game for the Global
Economy
First, internationally agreed codes of conduct for transparency
and proper procedures that ensure educated markets. These would
cover monetary, financial and fiscal policy and corporate governance
and would be applied by all countries, rich and poor, as a condition
for participation in the international financial system.
Recall
that the first constitutional settlement of the world economy
in 1945 was not simply about institutions but about rules of the
game. We must now return the international financial system to
this idea of rules of the game. While the founders of Bretton
Woods devised rules for a world of limited capital flows, we must
devise new rules for a world of global capital flows. But our
guiding principle remains the same the promotion of global
economic stability and international co-operation to promote growth
and employment.
The codes will require accurate reporting
to the international community, by each national economy, of all
relevant information - for example the size of a budget deficit,
the state of bank reserves and the level of currency liabilities.
The codes will require not only this
flow of information but the adherence to specific timetables and
proper standards for transparency and disclosure.
By requiring exposure of deteriorating
conditions, the codes would prevent the temptation for countries
to deliberately mask problems, which is what happened in Thailand
and Korea with consequences felt across Asia and then the world.
We should not be so complacent as to
assume that codes of conduct are needed only in other countries
and not our own. Given that the most recent threat to global stability
came from lack of transparency in hedge funds in both the United
States and Britain, we need tougher standards and requirements
for disclosure all round.
These new rules of the game are
not incidental to the financial architecture for the new global
economy: they are the financial architecture for the new
global economy. They require countries to pursue self discipline
with the prospect, if they do not, of imposed discipline.
National governments should not
pick and mix which standards they choose to meet and which standards
they choose to ignore. So proper implementation of the codes should
be a condition of any IMF and World Bank support. In the global
economy, national governments have rights but they also have responsibilities
they must meet.
Global financial regulation
Because todays financial markets are global, we need not
only proper national supervision but also a second fundamental
reform global financial regulation. That is why Britain
has proposed bringing together the IMF, The World Bank and key
regulatory authorities a new permanent standing committee
for global financial regulation charged with delivering the global
objective of a stable financial system.
The Standing Committees work
would make co-operation between international institutions and
national regulators a fact of international economic life. In
short, the Standing Committee would be the worlds early
warning system for regional and global economic risk.
Global crisis prevention and resolution
We need, thirdly, a modern mechanism, rooted in transparency and
reliable surveillance and built on public and private sectors
both accepting their responsibilities which can identify potential
problems at a stage where preventative action can be effective.
The new mechanism for crisis prevention
must deal with imbalances as result of global capital flows.
We need a process of active and transparent
surveillance that is a matter of course for all countries, operating
in normal times, all the time; not one triggered only by the warning
signs or onset of crisis in a particular region or country.
The short-hand phrase for these creditor-to-country
arrangements is country clubs but these are not exclusive clubs,
old boy networks, an informal means of defending privilege. These
are modern investor networks that can bring real benefits in return
for real responsibilities: networks that every country should
form and every creditor should join.
The G7 have proposed greater openness
from The World Bank, the IMF and other international financial
institutions. Their monitoring tells them much of what is happening
in every national economy. Clearly in exceptional cases some policy
discussions will have to be kept confidential but I strongly support
the publication of the IMFs country surveillance reports
under Article IV. The case for an exception must be made and justified,
while openness should be the norm. Put simply we should establish
an international right to know that is not occasional or voluntary
but ongoing and mandatory.
With a right to a greater flow of
information comes greater private sector responsibility. We need
a system of debtor-creditor agreements crisis resolution
procedures signed up to in normal times with private sector responsibility
clauses, such as agreement on collective representation and majority
voting when creditor decisions are being made. When trouble hits
an economy, the private sector must be prepared to do more than
simply pull money out and accelerate the panic.
With these three changes
transparency, enhanced surveillance and investor networks
we can establish a markedly lower threshold for effective response
than the old ad hoc, crisis-triggered system.
In the new framework, it should
be the duty of the public sector to inform, the duty of the international
financial systems to monitor and the duty of the private sector
to engage.
With the reforms we propose, we
have a real opportunity to move the emphasis of international
financial governance from one of crisis resolution to one of crisis
prevention and crisis containment.
Global principles on social policy
There is a fourth reform: we propose a global set of principles
of best practice which will ensure that when the IMF and World
Bank help a country in trouble, the agreed programme of reform
will preserve investment in the social, education and employment
programmes which are essential for growth.
For too long it has been assumed
that the cost of crises will inevitably be paid by putting more
burdens on the poor - by cutting health, education and basic social
services.
This is wrong in the short term and it
will not work in the long term because it erodes both the economic
and the political foundations of a society. For reasons of self-interest
as well as conscience, we cannot accept a worldwide regime of
the well-off in the castle and the vast majority at the gate.
In their October statement, the
G7 recognised the urgent need for a set of general principles
for good practice in social policy and asked the World Bank to
work with countries and with the IMF and others to develop the
principles as a matter of urgency.
This is an historic opportunity
to realise the enduring public purpose, the high ideals of 1945.
We should not see this set of principles in narrow terms as merely
creating social safety nets. We should see it as creating opportunities
for all by investing more not less in education, employment and
vital public services.
Conclusion
So what we must together create is a new economic constitution
for a global economy, born out of new realities, grounded in new
rights and responsibilities, enshrined in codes of conduct that
are agreed nationally and applied internationally, rediscovering
public purpose in the international economy and bringing to life
again the high ideals of 1945.
We need to build quickly, not debate indefinitely.
- Agreement on
the codes of conduct should be reached at the IMF meetings
in April 1999.
- A new system
of global financial regulation should be in place by Summer
1999.
- The new mechanism
for crisis prevention and crisis resolution should be agreed
in principle this summer and the detail should be the subject
of intensive discussions between the private sector and national
and international institutions to reach agreement by the end
of 1999.
- The principles
for best practice in social policy should be considered at
the next World Bank meeting in Spring 1999.
This
is a programme of reform for our generation. It is more than
simply a collection of proposals. It rests on a modern vision
of government, doing the right thing but not everything; of
markets working but not always perfectly; of principles of economic
and social justice that reflect our best values and ultimately
determine world stability and growth.
This project is indivisible. Each
element is essential to the success of the whole. All of it
is built on the understanding that increasingly we are part
of both one global economy and one moral universe.
Rt. Hon.
Gordon Brown is Chancellor of the Exchequer in the UK. He
has been a Labour Member of Parliament since 1983. This is an
abridged version of a speech, and printed with permission, which
was delivered at Harvard University in December 1998. For a
full copy of the speech, please contact his Press Office, fax:
44-171-270-5244.
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